Do you hate the thought of working past 55 or 60? Do you hate not being able to live the life you deserve today? Do you hate not knowing what your financial future looks like? It's time to stop doing what you hate, here's your host, Mr. Harold Green.
(00:19): Oh, everybody. This is Harold Green of Brightree financial group. And it's time to stop going. What you hate. I'm excited, cautiously excited to be bringing you folks. Today's show man. It's been a crazy week. things have kind of been all over the place. And so I want to just kind give you guys some advice and regards to how to hang in there. Well, not only just hanging in there, but also like how to thrive when everybody else, it seems like they going crazy and they're losing their mind. So again, it's, it's been a crazy week, but you know, I had to put a lot of different things in perspective. And one of the things I had to really put into perspective again, was this whole topic of ambition. And so we are in the ambition series. And just to do a quick recap, we talked about the, the first show was be ambitious.
(01:12): You know, first of all, you gotta be ambitious. And the last couple of things we did talk about was choose to be different and also the courage to succeed. And, you know, I was listening back on the show, courage to succeed. And, you know, I made the statement. I've never seen a superhero that lacked courage. I'd never seen a scared superhero, but I've also never seen a scared villain either. So no matter what side of the fence you choose to be on good or bad, it takes courage to pull off some of the stuff that you're trying to do. So I wanna get into today's show about so many big things. There's so many big things that are gonna be happening coming up, and I want you folks to be ready for some of that stuff, but there's one key thing that you're gonna have to do in order to accomplish some pretty big things.
(01:55): And so are you folks ready? 1, 2, 3, let's get it. All right. So many big things. I wanna talk about what has happened for the first month or so of, well, we're not even in, you know, when I'm even done with the first month, we still got like eight days left. So a lot of stuff can still happen, but I just want to kind of talk about how things have started off for us and 2022. I mean, man, I came into this year, very, very optimistic. I still am. Haven't changed my stance. Haven't changed my tone. I haven't quite doubled down on my positions, but I've added to them. And I'll talk about that because one of the things you're gonna have to do is you gotta be ambitious when everybody else is sitting there, like the world's gonna come to an end and I've been looking at different reports and different things like that.
(02:48): And talking about the sentiment of just people in the country where things are at today. And thankfully I haven't really had any clients calling me, you know, afraid of anything because I've been communicating with them via newsletters and, you know, text messages, phone calls, and, and if you are a client and you're listening to me, thank you for giving me the opportunity to serve you, but know at any time, if you have any questions or any concerns, feel free to get on the, and give me a call or shoot me an email or shoot me a text message because we can talk about this kind of stuff. If you have concerns and you know, one client was telling me, she said, Harold, you know, I hear a lot of stupid stuff out there, a lot of things. And it just, it goes contrary to what you're telling us.
(03:34): It goes contrary. And I said, yeah, it's gonna run contrary because people have reasons for the things that they say right. There could be some sort of monetary reason why they're saying these different things. You gotta be careful what you're hearing and then whether or not you're gonna put that stuff into practice. And so, you know, I wanna talk a little bit about that, but the sentiment in the country and, you know, for very good reason, there's a lot of turmoil going on. A lot of big things, a lot of big things that have lot of people scared, you know, pictures of empty shelves and all that. Like, I'll tell you straight up, like if you live in a place where the shelves are empty and stuff, and you can't find, man, it's probably time to move. It's probably time to move to a state where they have some common fricking sense where they can keep things stocked.
(04:19): You know, about here in Hawaii. And one day I was talking to some ladies that worked at Costco and you know, we're talking about the supply chain crisis. Cause I, I talk to anybody I'm I ain't scared to talk to like nobody, I don't talk to anybody about anything. Even if I don't know, you I'll just start having a conversation with you. Like I've known you for 30 years. Like I just, that's how I am. I love talking to people and I love hearing what people have to say. I'm just weird, like that. I'm just different like that. And so I said, so what about our supply chain crisis? Has it hit us yet? And they said, you know, are we out running outta stuff yet? Well, we have that problem. They said we could, but you know, Hawaii's a, a very unique place.
(04:55): And my thought process, as soon as stuff starts to be, you know, missing off the shelves for an extended period of time, people going free, go on panic. Like they have done before, but it was quickly resolved because again, you can't let that kind of stuff. Bester not here on, on eye. Then people would just be like it would be like a free for all, but people aren't concerned. They are afraid, which sometimes, you know, I don't really think anyone has any reason to be fearful or any reason to be afraid and to just kind of wake out. But there are a lot of reasons why people are. And one of the main reasons why they are is because of a lack of knowledge, right? Knowledge has the ability to calm things down. And so I'm gonna be dropping some knowledge on you folks today.
(05:37): And the key takeaway that I want you to have for from today's show is I want you to be able to keep your cool, okay. So I'm gonna share with you some things that hopefully will help you. You know, if you are kind of weirding out right now or, you know, frustrated or freaked out, you gotta keep your cool, you gotta calm down and you gotta think about some things that you may be able to take advantage of in the midst of all of this Tormo, right? So you gotta keep your cool because in the next show, I'm gonna be talking about the land of opportunity, freaked out people , they don't get many opportunities, right? Cause they're always scared. They're always running around doing crazy things, making bad choices. They, they create bad luck. I really don't believe in luck, but I hear people talking about luck a lot and how you can make your own luck, good luck or bad luck by the decisions and the choices that you make.
(06:27): So we're gonna be talking about investments today. And I gotta put the statement out there that past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments, including real estate are speculative in nature and they all involve substantial risk of loss. And so you gotta go do your own due diligence before you make your investment choices, your investment decisions. I tell people if you're not working with me, go hire an independent advisor so that they can investigate for you. They can do some due diligence on building portfolios for you before you get started. And before you invest any money now, I don't want you to be foolish. I don't want you to gamble, but you gotta take faith-filled risk. And anything that you do and knowledge helps build your faith, right? Knowledge will help build your faith in something, right? And so I wanna get into some analytics today and, and some analysis of some things.
(07:26): And I wanna share with you a real simple thing to pay attention to when things are going crazy. So I picked out a handful of stocks that I want to talk about and what's going on with them. But before I get into that, a lot of this that I do for clients is baked in and built into the rapid retired program. And if you don't know anything about the rapid retired program, I want you to go to my website, bright fg.com and check out the rapid retired program. And just kind of look at some of the things that I have in there. And then this is gonna make sense to you. And so inside of the rapid retire program, the main component inside for protecting people's wealth, I wouldn't say ne necessarily protecting wealth, but growing wealth is the three buckets, the bucket concept of short term intermediate, and then long term again, long term is money.
(08:18): You're not gonna need for 10 to 15 years, right? We're talking about 10 to 15 years. And so I want you to keep these timeframes in mind. And then the intermediate bucket is five to 10 years. And then the short term bucket is from now and for the next five years, right? Five, six years, something like that. So this is what I want you to keep in mind as we go through this. One of the, I want to talk about is this high period of inflation that we're in and it's not like this hasn't happened before this has happened before, and it's gonna happen again until the world ends. The world is hasn't ended yet. And people talk to me like the world is gonna end someday. It might, but that's a very pessimistic view of living. And I tell people when they say to me like how bad are things gonna get?
(09:08): And my, my response is I wouldn't think about how things, how bad things are gonna get. But in other words, how good are things going to get for you? Like what's the rebound, what's the comeback. What's the turnaround. What's the golden idea that you come up with in hard times, right? Because in tough times, that's when people make the most money or they position themselves to come out like a champ on the other side and set up a, on the other side. So I'm gonna drop this on you folks today. And when you start to hear things about the market and recessions and bear market and all of these different things, think about the next 2, 3, 4, 5 years moving forward. All right, we're gonna add a few stocks. We're gonna talk about a couple of different things. We're gonna talk about buying or holding the stock.
(10:02): We're gonna talk about the 200 day moving average of the stock. And we're gonna talk about the price to earnings ratio of the stock and how you have to think about these things. And in full disclosure, for me personally, because of my level of risk and my financial plan and my long term goals in my long term bucket, I am only holding three stocks right now. And I'm adding to them every opportunity that I get. All right, I'm holding Microsoft, I'm holding Tesla and I'm holding apple, apple, Microsoft Tesla. I had to think about that for a second, but that's, that's all I'm holding. And, and so I want to analyze these three along with a couple of others and just kind of talk about what's going on with them, and then give you a little bit of history about the highest inflation period that we've been in for a while.
(10:53): Okay. Over the last 10 years, because I think that's relevant to many years ago, that stuff really isn't relevant because technology has changed. Things have evolved so much things are different, and we gotta look at everything with a different set of eyes through a different lens. If I may say that. So let's start off with this conversation about rotating between growth and value, right? You, you hear a lot about that, oh, we're getting outta growth. We're lightning our positions in growth, and we're adding value stocks. We're adding stocks that are considered value. And, and I hear a lot about this. What the heck is value? Well, it's supposed to be stocks that are producing results, earnings paying dividends, but they're not overly priced, right? They don't necessarily have a high price to earnings ratio. And so that's, they're calling those value stocks, but a lot of times people are lumping these names in together.
(11:52): And they're not parsing these things out to see if it's really a value stock or are they acting like growth stocks. Right. And that's very scary because the volatility is so high right now, the fear and the market is so high. People are selling stuff that they shouldn't be selling because they're scared. They're afraid, right? If this is money you're gonna need next week, it shouldn't be in the stock market. If you're trying to make a quick buck, I mean, go find something else to do. Cuz the stock market, isn't a place where you try to make a quick buck next week, or you got 20 grand and you wanna sit in in there and like, I wanna double it and make it 40 in like 30 days. No man, that's not how this goes. But there's a lot of people out there doing foolish and stupid stuff, money that they shouldn't be gambling with.
(12:35): And when you do short term trading or buying crazy options and different things like that, trying to make a quick buck, that's gambling, that's not investing that's gambling. You know, you probably have a better look going to Vegas and playing slots. If you got 20 grand, you know, take two or three grand, go to Vegas, play slots. You might come out with 10. I mean, and you may have more fun. You'll lose some probably probably, but playing like that in a market that that's no place to be. And that's why volatility is so high. And what exacerbates, this is the machine buying and selling so well, the algorithms, they scan the internet for news. They scan thousands of websites, looking for news, looking for data. What is Jerome Powell gonna do? What do they think he's gonna do? What's gonna happen with like Ukraine, what's gonna happen with this place.
(13:20): And they're scanning all this stuff and they sell on negative news, right? And not even really looking at the fundamentals per se, but selling because more selling and people see that, right? Some, some days the market will drop from no apparent reason or to take off for no apparent reason. As a long term investor with a strategy, you have to look through that and then look at the individual holdings in the portfolio. So these are all the things that are going through my mind because you know what I need to do. I need to keep my cool, right. That's what I get paid to do. I get paid to keep of cool. When you go see the doctor and you have a serious medical condition and you're all freaking out, you want him to keep you cool. You want him, you want him to tell you something that's gonna help you calm down.
(14:06): Right? You don't want to be sitting there like panicking and then he's panicking. Then it's like, oh my God, we're both panic, man. You gonna die like that. Right. Nobody wants to go through that. I want you to keep your cool. So let's take a look at a couple of different things. We're gonna look at 200 day moving average. We're gonna look at the market close on Friday. What happened? PE ratios and whether they're buying opportunities, holding opportunities and then out of recessions, what happened and these particular holdings. So let's start with E meaning mighty Mo I'll take Amazon. All right. I don't hold any Amazon. I got outta Amazon a long time ago. And I call it a long time ago. Probably what last year, sometime when I just felt that. And you know, when they were talking about unionizing on Amazon, I said, okay, there goes their stock.
(14:55): As soon as the employees are talking about forming unions, I'm like, okay, I'm out because their cashflow they're investing a lot of their cash flow back into the company, right? Benefits, different things like that. So anytime they look at unionizing, that's just more, more cost. And that's gonna to have an impact on the price and the shares are gonna tumble, right? Regardless of whether or not they're a great company and they're pumping all this stuff out left and right. People, you know, I still order stuff on Amazon, but I'm just not holding their stock right now. I've, I've lost faith in their direction at the moment. Although AWS, which is one of their biggest income generators, Amazon web services, it's it is producing phenomenal results. But on the other side, on their warehousing side, the merchandising side, that's, that's a different ballgame. So you almost have like two companies in one.
(15:40): And I think they ought to split themselves off. Honestly, that's my opinion. Okay. And have the technology side. And then the, the other side, the consumer side, right? The shopping and all of that, that they do on the other side. But I've sold them. They're trading well below their 200 day moving average, it was 33 91 point 70. That's their 200 day moving average, $3,391 and 70 cents. Now as a Friday, close that $2,852 and 86 cents. Well, the PE ratio priced to earnings of 55.8, three and the analysts and all of the charts are saying, don't keep holding. Amazon. Amazon went from a hold last week to a sell, right? These things can change on the drop of a hat, right? To drop drop of a, a pen. These things can change Amazon's out. So if I have any clients holding Amazon, I'm slowly getting 'em out position as soon as I can, whether you know, and I have to look at how much capital gain stacks they're gonna pay, right.
(16:37): If their gains are gonna be huge, then I gotta kind of think about slowly getting 'em out of that. Or if the client doesn't care about the capital gains and we can take the profits and pay the gains that 'em out. So that's, what's going on with Amazon. I wanna talk about a value stock per se, Proctor and gamble, right? Proctor and gamble, man. Their stock has been going through the roof. Why? Because people have been rotating out growth and to Proctor and gamble. But the problem is, is their 200, a moving average is $143 and 69 cents a share. They close Friday $162 and 62 cents. They're trading above their 200, a moving average with the price earnings ratio of 27.51. They pay a nice dividend. So you're gonna hear a lot of stuff about dividend growth investing. So people are rotating towards that kind of stuff.
(17:19): 3.4, 8% dividends. That's not too bad. Right? You can also find stuff like that in Verizon, which is like, I think 4% or something like that dividends, but the, the price of the stock doesn't move much. Right? See, you're how gonna have to look at that. Now let's go and compare that with apple. And by the way, Proctor and gamble is a three for hold the ranked as a hold, not to be buying, but people are buying Proctor and gamble when they shouldn't be. That's just what I see in the numbers. There are three. Now apple traded at 1 48 0.04, two that's 3,200 day moving average. And they closed that 1 62 0.41 on Friday. So they're heading down to where their 200 day moving average and their price to earnings ratio is 28.95. That's interesting. Their shares are sliding. They have roughly about the same PE as Procter and gamble, but Procter and gamble.
(18:14): They're going offline gang busters because this is the fear element that's working here, right? People are rotating from growth to value. Has the fundamentals of apple change? Not at all. Apple is still a great company with great cash with great balance sheets. And they're innovating like crazy. Like why would you sell stuff like that? If you know this well, because again, people are selling based on fear. But for me that represents some buying opportunities here soon. That's just me personally, right? I can't, again, I don't want you acting on any of the advice that I'm sharing with you in the, because I'm giving you information on how to keep your cool and why you should keep your cool and why you should not panic. Microsoft 200, a moving average, $293 and 90 cents a share. They closed at 2 96 0.03 with a P of 33.12. I know this is all like nerd stuff, but again, this is what goes into helping you keep your cool, the more, you know, the better off you are.
(19:13): Now, the, the thing about Microsoft is this. Once they get historian at their 200 day moving average, man, it can be a scary thing for some people and analysts look at that and say, right, this thing can go one or two ways here. It can continue to drop like a rock or it bounce off the 200 day moving average and skyrocket, right? But here's what's happening. We have the highest inflation we've had in years for a couple of different reasons. All right. A couple of different reasons. I don't wanna get into politics cuz it sucks, but everybody know what's going on. People aren't stupid anymore. It can go one or two ways, right. Microsoft can shoot up or it can shoot backwards. And so for me, I'm looking at that very closely and I'm in my own personal portfolio. I'm adding why, cuz I don't I'm this is money that I don't need for, I don't need it for 10 years.
(20:05): Right? I don't need this money for 10 years. And I don't think Microsoft is gonna crash and go to zero. They could. I'm not saying they can't or they won't. I'm saying the probability is unlikely and investing involves probability. You have to think these things through and they're ranked as a buy. And the last one I wanna talk about is Tesla. Everybody knows Tesla. I mean, this stock has just been hot, but now it's cool. And off why, I mean they report earnings sometimes soon. Last time they did really well. They're delivering more cars. They make their own chips. They don't have a, a chip problem. Like some of the other manufacturers do. So what's up? Well, 200 day moving average is $814 and 69 cents a share. They close that $936 a share Friday with a PE of $308 and 26 cents. Man, that is high.
(20:59): But just because companies have high PEs doesn't mean it's necessarily a bad thing. Some of these companies are justifying that they are producing risk results. And so therefore they're garnering these high PE ratios, right? Their price is just going through the roof. And at one point Tesla had targets of a hundred. What is it? $1,500 a share. I didn't check what they were the other day, but man, they're ranked as a strong buy. So in the face of all of the selling and people selling off their Tesla, the software that I use and the numbers I see has Tesla ranked as a strong buy, even in the midst of all of this craziness. Right? And so I just wanted to share with you folks, what this stuff looks like, right what's happening right now is we go through this where they're talking about raising interest rates.
(21:48): Even if they do raise rates, we're still not low. The lowest rates we've been at in like 2030. I mean, it's, it's insane how cheap the money supply still is, right? How cheap it is to get loans and different things like that. So that's not necessarily something that you really need to be worried about. What you need to be concerned about is what position are you gonna be in when the economy hits the restart button and some of these states come their sense about how they're managing the, you know, the coronavirus and whatnot. Some countries already like, yo look, man, we over this already, we're gonna move on. We're gonna figure things out. We're gonna get our economy back cranking again. And we're gonna, we're gonna take care of what we need to take care of. We're not gonna play politics with this thing. Like some of these idiots are in our country playing politics with something where politics shouldn't even be here.
(22:34): Right? My wife and I were talking last night about how can scientists all over the world, come up with different opinions when they're looking at the same data, unless their data is all like weird and manipulate it. If I'm a scientist and I'm looking at the periodic table and another other scientists looking at the periodic table, it should mean the same thing to us. We should know the basics of the periodic table. We shouldn't be sitting there trying to interpret the periodic table based on our religious or political affiliation. This is just stupid. And I don't wanna do that with my client's finances. However, we have to look at what's going on and then figure out what position do we want to be in at the restart. I keep telling folks it's like the NASCAR wreck when they wreck up the cars and then they gotta get the restart.
(23:16): So whoever gets the better restart, they usually end up, you know, finishing higher on the grid at the end of the race, unless there's another wreck. So the restart is very important. So had some high points of inflation back in 2008 things went crazy with the housing market, more free money pumped in to try to build this stuff out, made the economy worse stuff went down. And so we had a recovery back in 2009, right? January, the things starts to recover. We get down to, or actually February we, we hit, we hit bottom in February in February of 2009, February 28th to be exact boom. That was the restart. And what happened, Proctor and gamble. They started to roll slowly, Microsoft man. They started growing apple. They started growing and within two years later, two and a half years later, may of 2011, apple was up 288%.
(24:22): Microsoft was up 51% and Proctor and gamble was up 19% problem with Microsoft. They had all these antitrust problems going on, so that put a damper on their stop and apple just took off. So there are concerns about big tech being broken up, being looked at. But I think they're innovating through growing they're producing results. They're coming up with better products every single day. So I'm gonna say, don't start selling off all your portfolios and sitting it in cash. But the name of the game moving forward is gonna be rotate, rotate, rotate. You gotta know when to move, where to move to. Of course we're gonna be losing money, but here's the thing to think about if you're not selling shares of your stock and your dollar cost averaging into the stock, what's happening is when the restart goes off, then you're gonna have more shares of the stock.
(25:13): And then you're, you're gonna have better growth because you potentially, I would say potentially because you own more shares. And so getting enough, getting more of these shares when they're down, it's a very wise thing to do, depending on your risk tolerance, all of the, that has to be factored in. It depends on your long-term plan. And if you haven't sat down and figured out a long term plan yet I'd love to help you with that. With the rapid retired program, we'll sit down, we'll do an assessment. We'll look at where you are and figure out, okay, what is it gonna mean to you? I had a new client that just came on board soup were excited to have them on board. I don't wanna say their names yet because I didn't tell them. I, you know, I'm doing a podcast show, but I'll share with them later that I do a show and then they'll, they'll probably hear it super excited to, to be on board.
(25:54): And you know, we looked at everything and I said, what does it mean to you? If I said, based on what I see or what I can do and the adjustments we can make, you can quit your job tomorrow. what would you say? And he just sat there and he looked at me like, like I'm crazy. And I said, based on what I see and based on what I think we can do, you can leave your job tomorrow. How does that make you feel? Oh my God. It was an exciting moment. And I love to have that for people that are just in these situations where, and this is what stopped doing, what you hate is all about, because sometimes you do what you hate because of out of responsibility and, and different things like that. But I tell people a lot of times, the reason why you keep doing the things that you hate, because you don't know what else to do, right?
(26:39): You've been doing this so long, it just becomes a part of you and you just deal with it and you just put up with it. And sometimes you're gonna have a negative impact on your relationships. You can have a negative impact on your health. And so I want to help you transition. You know, if you're close to retirement, if you're in your fifties, you know, 55 close to 60, and you don't know if you can get out, let me sit down and talk to you and then figure out how we can create this game plan to get you out the door, you know, into the things that you love or that you would be excited about, or just getting you into a period of life where all the pressure and stress is off. And then you can take a year or two to figure out what it is that you want to do.
(27:13): You don't necessarily have to have something lined up right away. If you can walk away and never have to work again, that's an option too, but I always tell people, you want to have something to do in a retirement to keep you active, to keep you growing and to and to keep you making an impact in society, because that's a very important thing to consider, but keep you cool. Keep your cool, there's no need to panic, right? Even if times get tougher, there's no need to panic. Keep our cool reevaluate, reassess, rotate, make adjustments, look for the opportunity. And in the next show, the land of opportunity. I think we live in the greatest country in the world. I'm gonna be talking to you about things you can do to position yourself for the opportunities that are going to be cut. I mean, your way, you can be bold and courageous and of good cheer and of faith and move out and conquer, pursue overtake succeed, or you can hide duck, run, be scared and not really make an impact in life and live of such standard way. And we don't, we don't want that for you. We want everybody to achieve and to Excel and to succeed and make an impact on society. Whether it's given to charity, growing your family, you know, imparting wisdom to your kids, whatever it may be. So thanks for tuning in everybody. And until next time, 1, 2, 3, let's get it.
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