Do you hate the thought of working past 55 or 60? Do you hate not being able to live the life you deserve today? Do you hate not knowing what your financial future looks like? It's time to stop doing what you hate, here's your host, Mr. Harold Green.
(00:20): Love. Hi everybody. This is Harold Green of Brightree financial group, and it's time to stop doing what you hate. I hope you are having a fantastic day today. I'm doing pretty good. It's been a very interesting week for me. And shoot, it's been a very interesting year so far. We're just sitting here in I wanna say April going into may a lot of good things coming down the road. I mean, extremely excited. My daughter's gonna be graduating college and we're gonna get to go do graduation in New York, hang around in the city for a little bit, you know, just have a little fun, do some things with the family meet up with my son and his fiance and just kind of hang out and just kinda get the group together again and just get caught up on things. And I'm really looking forward to, to seeing my kids and hanging out and just kind of talking about the future.
(01:11): So I'm super excited about that, but today today's gonna be real simple. It's gonna be called the market update. And basically just to kinda give you an update on where the stock market is. I know you folks listen to my show for a lot of different reasons and I don't know if you're aware of it, but I do send out a monthly newsletter called the market minute where I talk about what's going on in the market and where we are today. So I'm just gonna rant and rave at you guys for a little bit. And just kinda give you my 2 cents on things and investments do carry risk of loss. And so before you act on anything, I say, I want you to go and get your own independent evaluation of your investment accounts to your own due diligence, because again, investments do carry risk of loss and past performances, no indicator of future results.
(02:02): So are you ready? Are you ready? 1, 2, 3. Let's get it. All right. So where, where are we in the market? We've gone through two, two bottoms almost here and the last, what month. And they call that a double bottom. And if you are a chart person looking at charts and technicals, I think they call that the head and shoulders pattern. And that usually happens before stocks tend to break out and do phenomenal things. But in the past when that's happened, we didn't have the same kind of things that we have going on right now. So where are we? We're at record inflation. Inflation is going through the roof, but for most of my clients is not a pro problem because we do have a plan in place to make sure that they're gonna be taken care of and they're gonna be okay. And we're actually using these bottoms to our advantage in regards to repositioning ourselves for what I called an ASCAR restart of the stock market.
(03:01): And you guys know what that is when there's a wreck on the track, they go out there and they take the safety car out. They clean up the debris and if they don't have to stop the race, what they do is the guys kind of line up. And then they hit the, the green flag for clear racing and boom, they're at it again. So I always tell my clients, you gotta really make sure that you are in the right position for the restart when the market starts to, to pile up again, because sure enough, people will be piling back in as fast as they pile out. So I'm gonna talk about two different strategies you folks can kind of look at in regards to how you should be positioning yourself for the restart of the market. When it's gonna start cranking back up again, you wanna look at your portfolio and your holdings in three different phases.
(03:52): We got the short term right now, the short term, immediate, like what's hot right now. What's happening right now. And how long is that gonna be? How long is it gonna be good for? How long are those holdings are going to be good for? And then you have the intermediate future, right? What's gonna be happening three months from now, four months from now, right? And then you have the long term what's gonna gonna be happening a year from now. Who's gonna be hot and popping a year from now. So where are we at immediately? Well, we got the, the treasuries going up, which is causing downward pressure on technology stocks because they say for some reason, future earnings are discounted when rates are higher. And I have yet to make that correlation in today's market, maybe in the past, but not today. Because if you look at your fundamentals, some companies are flush with cash.
(04:54): Their long term debt is dropping their revenues, arising. Their cash are rising. Companies are making money, but their prices are getting hammered because people are selling them. Algorithms are selling them and they don't look attractive. And it is a little bit painful when to, you know, to see your portfolio go up, you know, two, three, $400,000 in a couple weeks, and then down to $300,000 in a couple weeks. But that's a portion of your portfolio. That's gonna act like that in these times. And then there's the short term portion of your portfolio, depending on if you're playing your trade the right way, right energy, maybe right. Commodities, mining, metals I mean food, food companies, Hershey, Proctor gamble, consumer staples, it's the whole growth versus value, you know, know kind of trade. And I kind of really don't believe in that. I just kind of believe in, what's gonna be making us money right now.
(06:03): And a part of our portfolio should be in that what's gonna be making us money three to four months down the road that, you know, part of your portfolio should be in that. And what's gonna be taking us into the future a year, 2, 3, 4 years down the road. A portion of your portfolio should be in that. Now, again, this conversation here is more for the person who's actively trading their own portfolio, not for the clients that I'm managing portfolios for. I'm just kind of giving you a little glimpse into how I manage some of the money that I have. And what are some of the things that I'm looking at. So as far as like the restart, where you should be when the market starts to pile back up again, I think you ought to be in technology. I think you ought to have a large portion of your portfolio in technology.
(06:50): That's just my belief based on the things that I see now, this is also for a person who's trading in an individual portfolio, not an IRA or anything like that. If you're trading in an IRA, that's a whole different conversation. Like all bets are off when you're trading in an IRA, because you can go in and outta positions and day trade if you want. But if you're doing that in individual account, you're gonna have gains and losses gains and losses. Sometimes it's short term capital gains. Sometimes it's long term capital gains. And then sometimes you're gonna get hit with a wash cell, which sucks because if you go in a position and then you make money, that's great and you sell it. That's short term capital gain. If you go in, you go in a position and you lose money, you sell it, that's a loss, but if you buy it back within 30 days, they count it as if it's no loss, right?
(07:35): They count that as if you made money and it's stupid on your taxes because it will mess your taxes up. But I do think if you're gonna go into technology, that's part of your long term portfolio, your short term, part of your portfolio ought to be in things that are hot right now, things that are making us money right now, like a Archer Daniels, Midland, or maybe a church in Dwight, or maybe a BTU or something like that, because we're gonna, we're definitely gonna need energy. We're gonna need energy for a long time. And you can do that as a long term trade, if you want. Or you can do that as a, a short term trade. If you want, if you do it as a long term trade, it's gonna be a little bit painful to watch when America goes back to being energy and dependent.
(08:23): That's cool. But I want to take a little side step and talk about something that I talked about in my newsletter. And that is why we have record high inflation that may not get under control anytime soon, it's call unbridled spending, spending, spending, spending. And here's what I was talking about, right? COVID is pretty much done and things are getting back on track, but yet you have this one segment that wants to treat. COVID like, it's still brand new, right? There's tons of testing. Look at the airline industry. There's tons of testing people, test, test, test, they test positive for COVID. Even if they don't have any symptoms, guess what? They can't come to work. Right? But in other industries, there is no testing and people can continue to work. So what's happening. Flights are being council left and right, and it's causing a major catastrophe.
(09:20): Another thing you look at as unemployment was extended for so many weeks. And so in some states, unemployment is 26 weeks and you don't even have to look for job. You can be out on unemployment for 26 weeks and have no job search re requirement. That is insane. Now during COVID. I understand because there were no jobs to go and get, like everybody was locked down, but now you don't have any excuse, unless there's a, a childcare issue or medical issue or something. That's really important. I'm not talking about somebody who wants to sit off for 26 weeks and find themselves and figure themselves out. But here's the thing, though, when people go on unemployment, they don't die. They still need to eat. They still need resources. They still need services. They still need goods. And somehow you have people able to afford goods and services and resources that are not producing goods and services and resources.
(10:15): And so that's gonna inflation unnecessarily high for a longer period of time until they start to change some of these things. Well, some states are looking at changing their unemployment to 10 weeks versus 26 weeks and so on and so forth. Some are changing it to even shorter. So there are a lot of different underlying reasons why we have high, a super high period of inflation right now. And like I said, I don't think it's gonna go down anytime soon. We got the whole situation with the Ukraine and that's causing downward pressure on the market. So if you're, if you're trading, then you can play some of these trades, right? You can make some money. You can get in, you can get out and then you can rotate your portfolio. But that's, if you're actively trading in an IRA, but if you're you're trading in a individual account, you really gotta look at your positions and pick 'em for the long term to make sure you're avoiding the short term capital gains.
(11:06): And you want long term capital gains and not short term capital gains. Right now, I get a lot of questions about crypto and stuff like that. And I'm gonna, I'm gonna pun of those questions every single time. And how I answer them to clients is look only put enough money in crypto that you can afford to lose. You can afford to lose. It's not gonna make a major impact on your life. If you lose it all, it doesn't mean you can't send your kids to college, or you can't take your trips. You can't retire. It doesn't mean that I have seen some people UN necessarily overweight in crypto because they think that's where the future's gonna be. Yes. I think the future is going to be somewhere with crypto, but H how far into the future are we talking about while crypto is trading sideways and going up and down, there's other stocks that can be making you money and building your wealth, right?
(11:55): There's always gonna be a, a, a trade for, or play for crypto. We just don't know when it's gonna be. So there's some people that are just talking about the crypto revolution and all that. I'm not saying I don't believe in it. Okay. It's a real thing. People have money in it. However, it's not for everybody for every situation. And you're gonna have to really do your due diligence on that, and then figure out how much money you can afford to lose and then put it there. And if it blows up great, right? It blows up, goes up two, three, 4000%, man. That's great. Right? You put in five grand, boom, you're looking good. You can go do that and have fun with that. That's just something you do and have fun. It's like going to Vegas. All right. But your real, you wanna make sure that is in solid companies that are gonna be here.
(12:36): Solid companies that are generating revenue right now, they're gonna gen generate money. Six months down the road. They're gonna generate money. 10, 15 years down the road. They're gonna be generating revenue, creating an innovating. And that's where you want to be. And a large portion of your portfolio. All right. Now, if you don't have time for it, and you want somebody to take a look at this stuff, you want somebody to professionally manage it for you because you feel like you have other things you want to do, and you can spend your time doing something way better than researching and trying to figure out fundamentals and, and technicals and all that. Look at my show notes, get on my schedule. I'd love to talk to you to help you figure out how I to spend your time doing something better than, you know, researching stocks.
(13:16): If it's fun, that's great. You can do that all day, but there's a lot of people who they tell me, they don't even know where to start. Right. And I can help you get started with that. Also, if you want to get my market minute, do you me a favor? Call the office, talk to Beverly 8 0 8 5 2 1 4 4 0 1. And then she will get you on the newsletter list, right? And that's a phenomenal thing cuz you get the newsletter every, every month. Whenever I send it out, sometimes I send out updates sooner than that, but it'll definitely allow you to stay in tune with what I'm thinking. So thanks for letting me rant and RA at you for just a little bit. And until next time everybody 1, 2, 3, let's get it.
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